Stops, limit orders and trading limits: a Safety Net for Futures Traders

Through the control offered by the exchanges, and government regulation, trading in the commodities markets does offer some limited protection from manipulation. The use of prudent orders does also offer some protection from loss.

The Short Futures Position

This simply means taking a short position in the hope that the futures price will go down. There is nothing to borrow and return when you take a short position since delivery, if it ever takes place, doesn't become an issue until some time in the future.

Limit and Stop-Loss Orders

"Limit orders" are common in the futures markets. In such cases, the customer instructs the broker to buy or sell only if the price of the contract he is holding, or wishes to hold, reaches a certain point. Limit orders are usually considered good only during a specific trading session, but they may also be marked "G.T.C." good till canceled.

Maximum Daily Price Moves

Sometimes futures prices in certain markets will move sharply in one direction or the other following very important news extremely bad weather in a growing area or a political upheaval, for instance. To provide for more orderly markets, the exchanges have definite daily trading limits on most contracts.

Most futures exchanges use formulas to increase a contract's daily trading limit if that limit has been reached for a specific number of consecutive trading days. Also. in some markets, trading limits are removed prior to expiration of the nearby futures contract. For other contracts, including stock index and foreign currency futures, no trading limits exist.

The Commodity Exchange Act

Trading in futures is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an independent agency of the United States government. The CFTC administers and enforces the Commodity Exchange Act.

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Options on Futures

Options on futures began trading in 1983. Today, puts and calls on agricultural, metal, and financial (foreign currency, interest-rate and stock index) futures are traded by open outcry in designated pits. These options pits are usually located near those where the underlying futures trade. Many of the features that apply to stock options apply to futures options.

An option's price, its premium, tracks the price of its underlying futures contract which, in turn, tracks the price of the underlying cash. Therefore, the March T-bond option premium tracks the March T-bond futures price. The December S&P 500 index option follows the December S&P 500 index futures. The May soybean option tracks the May soybean futures contract. Because option prices track futures prices, speculators can use them to take advantage of price changes in the underlying commodity, and hedgers can protect their cash positions with them. Speculators can take outright positions in options. Options can also be used in hedging strategies with futures and cash positions.

Futures options have some unique features and a set of jargon all their own.

Puts, Calls, Strikes, etc.

Futures offer the trader two basic choices - buying or selling a contract. Options offer four choices - buying or writing (selling) a call or put. Whereas the futures buyer and seller both assume obligations, the option writer sells certain rights to the option buyer.

A call grants the buyer the right to buy the underlying futures contract at a fixed price the strike price. A put grants the buyer the right to sell the underlying futures contract at a particular strike price. The call and put writers grant the buyers these rights in return for premium payments which they receive up front.

The buyer of a call is bullish on the underlying futures; the buyer of a put is bearish. The call writer (the term used for the seller of options) feels the underlying futures' price will stay the same or fall; the put writer thinks it will stay the same or rise.

Both puts and calls have finite lives and expire prior to the underlying futures contract.

The price of the option, its premium, represents a small percentage of the underlying value of the futures contract. In a moment, we look at what determines premium values. For now, keep in mind that an option's premium moves along with the price of the underlying futures. This movement is the source of profits and losses for option traders.

Who wins? Who loses?

The buyer of an option can profit greatly if his view is correct and the market continues to rise or fall in the direction he expected. If he is wrong, he cannot lose any more money than the premium he paid up front to the option writer.

Most buyers never exercise their option positions, but liquidate them instead. First of all, they may not want to be in the futures market, since they risk losing a few points before reversing their futures position or putting on a spread. Second, It is often more profitable to reverse an option that still has some time before expiration.

Option Prices

An option's price, its premium, depends on three things: (1) the relationship and distance between the futures price and the strike price; (2) the time to maturity of the option; and (3) the volatility of the underlying futures contract.

The Put

Puts are more or less the mirror image of calls. The put buyer expects the price to go down. Therefore, he pays a premium in the hope that the futures price will drop. If it does, he has two choices: (1) He can close out his long put position at a profit since it will be more valuable; or (2) he can exercise and obtain a profitable short position in the futures contract since the strike price will be higher than the prevailing futures price.

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Taking Delivery of Futures Contracts

You may wonder what happens if a trader forgets to close out a long position. If he bought live hog futures, will someone deliver 40,000 pounds worth of squealing porkers to his back door the morning after his contract expires?

Sorry, but no.

Brokerage firms watch their open accounts and know who has long or short positions in contracts nearing maturity. Prior to delivery day, they inform customers who have open long positions that they must either close out the position or prepare to take delivery and pay the full value of the underlying contract. By the same token traders with short positions are informed that they must close out their trades or prepare to deliver the underlying commodity. In this case, they must have the required quantity and quality of the deliverable commodity on hand.

On the few occasions that a buyer accepts delivery against his futures contract, he is usually not given the underlying commodity itself (except in the case of financials), but rather a receipt entitling him to fetch the hogs, wheat, or corn from warehouses or distribution points.

Food processors or manufacturers who use futures to hedge rarely take delivery because the deliverable grade on the contract may not be exactly what they need. Hence, they will close out their futures position before delivery and buy in the cash market instead.

Sometimes merchants and dealers accept delivery because they can find buyers for many grades and types of the underlying commodity.

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Keep in mind that futures prices are more volatile than stock prices

Hedging programs are used by individuals and companies who want protection against adverse price moves which would affect the cash commodities in which they deal.

The Short Hedge

In a short hedging program, futures are sold. This strategy is used by traders who either own the underlying commodity or are in some way subject to losses if its price declines.

The Long Hedge

Suppose the miller knows in July that in September he will buy 10,000 bushels of wheat from a grain elevator operator for grinding into flour. He worries that wheat prices will rise in the meantime because he has already guaranteed a price at which to sell flour to a baker in October.

Because he does not have the wheat now, he is considered to be "short the actuals" or "short the cash market." Therefore, to hedge this risk in the futures market, he can buy two wheat futures contracts (each represents 5.000 bushels). In September the cash price of wheat rises, the value of his futures contracts will rise too. The profit on the futures "leg" of his hedge will be earned by selling the futures at a higher price than he paid when he initiated the position, and will offset the extra money he must pay the grain elevator operator for the wheat.

The Relationship Between the Hedger and the Speculator

Unlike the hedger, the speculator usually has no contact with the underlying commodity; he has no natural long or short position as in the case of the hedger. He is in the market to make profits by buying low and selling high. Speculators are very important to a market. They make it more liquid and often take the opposite side of hedgers' trades. In this way, they act as a type of insurance underwriter by bearing the risk which hedgers seek to avoid.

Spreads

Much of the non-hedging activity in the futures markets involves spread trades (also called straddles). These strategies generally carry less risk than outright long or short positions; hence, they usually have lower margin requirements. Spreads involve the simultaneous buying and selling of futures contracts with different characteristics.

Compared to speculators, traders who put on spreads tend to make limited profits; they also suffer milder losses and likely enjoy a better night's sleep.

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Market News and Analysis

Keep in mind that futures prices are more volatile than stock prices. An established company that has enjoyed a long history of solid earnings will probably continue to do so. But a commodity that has trended up during one year, may turn around in the opposite direction the next year - and very quickly, too. For this reason, the commodity trader cannot sit back and relax knowing that his futures contract will bring in smooth returns. He must do his homework. In the futures market that means forecasting using fundamental analysis, technical analysis (charting), or both.

Information Sources for Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental approach to forecasting futures prices involves monitoring demand and supply. Traders gather this information from a number of sources trade organizations, private newsgathering and research firms, and the press. The most complete source of information is the U.S. government through the Departments of Agriculture, Treasury and Commerce and the Federal Reserve Banks.

Several brokerage firms issue market letters, which are usually in the form of digests of market information with opinions on future price trends.

Also, a few private advisory services provide commodity market information. They analyze available information from government and other sources, and make their own market and price forecasts.

Technical Analysis - the Philosophy of Charting

The cornerstone of technical trading is the belief that fundamental information, political events, natural disasters and psychological factors will quickly show up in some form of price movement. The chartist, therefore, searches for certain formations or patterns which indicate bullish or bearish shifts in fundamentals. If his analysis is correct, he can quickly profit from the changes without necessarily knowing the specific reasons for them.

Fundamental traders can also use charting information. Since the market price itself may react before the fundamental information comes to light, chart action can alert the fundamental analyst that something is happening and encourage closer market analysis.

How Charting Works

Bar charts, one of the more popular tools of traders, include information on a particular futures market's price movements, volume and open interest. Such charts are produced daily, weekly and monthly. Studying historical patterns can help to provide a long-term perspective on the market.

In addition to studying chart patterns, traders also look at moving averages, oscillators and other devices in ascertaining how bullish or bearish a market may be growing. Computer models are also used to check trend direction.

Charting is not an exact science. Allowances must be made for errors, and unexpected events can disrupt forecasts made on chart patterns. Even so, many market participants - both fundamental and technical traders - find that charting helps them stay on the right side of the market as well as pin down entry and exit points.

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The Futures Clearing House

Each futures exchange has a clearing association which operates in conjunction with the exchange in a manner similar to a bank clearing house.

Membership in the clearing association is composed exclusively of well-capitalized members of the exchange and corporations or partnerships one of whose officials must be an exchange member Exchange members who do not join the clearing association must clear their trades through a member of the association.

Every clearing-house member must put up fixed original margins and maintain them with the clearing house in the event of adverse price fluctuations. In such instances, the clearing house may call for additional margins throughout the day without waiting for routine end-of-day settlement.

It is worth noting here that parties to a trade who disagree about the information they exchanged in the pit (such as the price, number of contracts or month of the trade) must settle their differences and clear the trade before they are allowed to return to the floor the next morning. Disputes rarely arise, but if they do, exchanges have steps to follow in helping to resolve them.

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Who Trades Futures and Why?

There are two basic categories of futures participants: hedgers and speculators.

In general, hedgers use futures for protection against adverse future price movements in the underlying cash commodity. The rationale of hedging is based upon the demonstrated tendency of cash prices and futures values to move in tandem.

Hedgers are very often businesses, or individuals, who at one point or another deal in the underlying cash commodity. Take, for instance, a major food processor who cans corn. If corn prices go up. he must pay the farmer or corn dealer more. For protection against higher corn prices, the processor can "hedge" his risk exposure by buying enough corn futures contracts to cover the amount of corn he expects to buy. Since cash and futures prices do tend to move in tandem, the futures position will profit if corn prices rise enough to offset cash corn losses.

Speculators are the second major group of futures players. These participants include independent floor traders and investors. Independent floor traders, also called "locals", trade for their own accounts. Floor brokers handle trades for their personal clients or brokerage firms.

For speculators, futures have important advantages over other investments:

1. If the trader's judgment is good. he can make more money in the futures market faster because futures prices tend, on average, to change more quickly than real estate or stock prices, for example. On the other hand, bad trading judgment in futures markets can cause greater losses than might be the case with other investments.
2. Futures are highly leveraged investments. The trader puts up a small fraction of the value of the underlying contract (usually 10%-15% and sometimes less) as margin, yet he can ride on the full value of the contract as it moves up and down. The money he puts up is not a down payment on the underlying contract, but a performance bond. The actual value of the contract is only exchanged on those rare occasions when delivery takes place. (Compare this to the stock investor who generally has to put up at least 50% of the value of his stocks.) Moreover the commodity futures investor is not charged interest on the difference between the margin and the full contract value.
3. In general, futures are harder to trade on inside information. After all, who can have the inside scoop on the weather or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve's next proclamation on the money supply? The open outcry method of trading - as opposed to a specialist system - insures a very public, fair and efficient market.
4. Commission charges on futures trades are small compared to other investments, and the investor pays them after the position is liquidated.
5. Most commodity markets are very broad and liquid. Transactions can be completed quickly, lowering the risk of adverse market moves between the time of the decision to trade and the trade's execution.

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Futures Market Influences & Pressures

The cost of carry explains the basic relationship of cash to futures pricing, but it does not explain many less certain factors that can affect futures pricing such as seasonal influences and other unpredictable events.

As for Interest-rate and currency futures - those based on T-bonds, T-bills, Eurodollars and the five major currencies - the biggest influences are the policies and trading activities of the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and foreign central banks, all of which affect interest rates.

Stock indexes are affected by whatever influences the stock market as a whole. Interest rates certainly play a major role - higher interest rates usually hurt the stock market. Other effects include the overall prospects for corporate earnings and corporate tax policies that help or hurt big business.

Futures trading provides a way to establish a form of price knowledge leading to continuous price discovery. Futures prices reflect not only current cash prices, but also expectations of future prices and general economic factors.

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What is a Futures Contract?

Unlike a stock, which represents equity in a company and can be held for a long time, if not indefinitely, futures contracts have finite lives. They are primarily used for hedging commodity price-fluctuation risks or for taking advantage of price movements, rather than for the buying or selling of the actual cash commodity. The word "contract" is used because a futures contract requires delivery of the commodity in a stated month in the future unless the contract is liquidated before it expires.

The buyer of the futures contract (the party with a long position) agrees on a fixed purchase price to buy the underlying commodity (wheat, gold or T-bills, for example) from the seller at the expiration of the contract. The seller of the futures contract (the party with a short position) agrees to sell the underlying commodity to the buyer at expiration at the fixed sales price. As time passes, the contract's price changes relative to the fixed price at which the trade was initiated. This creates profits or losses for the trader.

In most cases, delivery never takes place. Instead, both the buyer and the seller, acting independently of each other, usually liquidate their long and short positions before the contract expires; the buyer sells futures and the seller buys futures.

Arbitrageurs in the futures markets are constantly watching the relationship between cash and futures in order to exploit such mispricing. If, for example, an arbitrageur realized that gold futures in a certain month were overpriced in relation to the cash gold market and/or interest rates, he would immediately sell those contracts knowing that he could lock in a risk-free profit. Traders on the floor of the exchange would notice the heavy selling activity and react by quickly pushing down the futures price, thus bringing it back into line with the cash market. For this reason, such opportunities are rare and fleeting. Most arbitrage strategies are carried out by traders from large dealer firms. They monitor prices in the cash and futures markets from "upstairs" where they have electronic screens and direct phone lines to place orders on the exchange floor.

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Futures Exchanges - a look inside

Most exchange trading floors are divided into pits (or rings) where traders stand facing one another. These are more or less shallow octagonal areas with raised steps around the edge. Each pit is designated for trading one or more futures contracts. For instance, at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) there are large pits for trading T-bonds, soybean, and corn futures among many others. The Commodities Exchange Center in New York houses more than one futures exchange. There you will find trading pits for such diverse commodities as coffee, sugar frozen orange juice, cocoa, gold, cotton, and heating oil.

Every futures exchange is set up in about the same way. Like the stock exchanges, the people trading on the floor must be members of the exchange itself. The members support the exchange by dues and assessments. Non-members - average investors, for instance trade through brokerage firms whose officers or partners hold memberships.

The exchange provides the place to trade and support facilities, such as phones and price-reporting and dissemination systems. It does not set prices or buy or sell for itself. However, its employees scrutinize operations and strictly enforce exchange rules and federal commodity trading regulations.

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What is traded?

A cash commodity must meet three basic conditions to be successfully traded in the futures market:

1. It has to be standardized and, for agricultural and industrial commodities, must be in a basic, raw, unprocessed state. There are futures contracts on wheat, but not on flour. Wheat is wheat (although different types of wheat have different futures contracts). The miller who needs a wheat futures to help him avoid losing money on his flour transactions with customers wouldn't need a flour futures. A given amount of wheat yields a given amount of flour and the cost of converting wheat to flour is fairly fixed. hence predictable.
2. Perishable commodities must have an adequate shelf life, because delivery on a futures contract is deferred.
3. The cash commodity's price must fluctuate enough to create uncertainty, which means both risk and potential profit.

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History of Futures Trading

In the 1840s, Chicago had become a commercial center with railroad and telegraph lines connecting it with the East. Around this same time, the McCormick reaper was invented which eventually lead to higher wheat production. Midwest farmers came to Chicago to sell their wheat to dealers who, in turn, shipped it all over the country.

He brought his wheat to Chicago hoping to sell it at a good price. The city had few storage facilities and no established procedures either for weighing the grain or for grading it. In short, the farmer was often at the mercy of the dealer.

1848 saw the opening of a central place where farmers and dealers could meet to deal in "spot" grain - that is, to exchange cash for immediate delivery of wheat.

The futures contract, as we know it today, evolved as farmers (sellers) and dealers (buyers) began to commit to future exchanges of grain for cash. For instance, the farmer would agree with the dealer on a price to deliver to him 5,000 bushels of wheat at the end of June. The bargain suited both parties. The farmer knew how much he would be paid for his wheat, and the dealer knew his costs in advance. The two parties may have exchanged a written contract to this effect and even a small amount of money representing a "guarantee."

Such contracts became common and were even used as collateral for bank loans. They also began to change hands before the delivery date. If the dealer decided he didn't want the wheat, he would sell the contract to someone who did. Or, the farmer who didn't want to deliver his wheat might pass his obligation on to another farmer The price would go up and down depending on what was happening in the wheat market. If bad weather had come, the people who had contracted to sell wheat would hold more valuable contracts because the supply would be lower; if the harvest were bigger than expected, the seller's contract would become less valuable. It wasn't long before people who had no intention of ever buying or selling wheat began trading the contracts. They were speculators, hoping to buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low.

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Forex Tutorial: Fundamental Analysis & Fundamentals Trading Strategies

In the equities market, fundamental analysis looks to measure a company's true value and to base investments upon this type of calculation. To some extent, the same is done in the retail forex market, where forex fundamental traders evaluate currencies, and their countries, like companies and use economic announcements to gain an idea of the currency’s true value. 



All of the news reports, economic data and political events that come out about a country are similar to news that comes out about a stock in that it is used by investors to gain an idea of value. This value changes over time due to many factors, including economic growth and financial strength. Fundamental traders look at all of this information to evaluate a country's currency.

Given that there are practically unlimited forex fundamentals trading strategies based on fundamental data, one could write a book on this subject. To give you a better idea of a tangible trading opportunity, let’s go over one of the most well-known situations, the forex carry trade. (To read some frequently asked questions about currency trading, seeCommon Questions About Currency Trading.)

A Breakdown of the Forex Carry Trade The currency carry trade is a strategy in which a trader sells a currency that is offering lower interest rates and purchases a currency that offers a higher interest rate. In other words, you borrow at a low rate, and then lend at a higher rate. The trader using the strategy captures the difference between the two rates. When highly leveraging the trade, even a small difference between two rates can make the trade highly profitable. Along with capturing the rate difference, investors also will often see the value of the higher currency rise as money flows into the higher-yielding currency, which bids up its value.

Real-life examples of a yen carry trade can be found starting in 1999, when Japan decreased its interest rates to almost zero. Investors would capitalize upon these lower interest rates and borrow a large sum of Japanese yen. The borrowed yen is then converted into U.S. dollars, which are used to buy U.S. Treasury bonds with yields and coupons at around 4.5-5%. Since the Japanese interest rate was essentially zero, the investor would be paying next to nothing to borrow the Japanese yen and earn almost all the yield on his or her U.S. Treasury bonds. But with leverage, you can greatly increase the return.

For example, 10 times leverage would create a return of 30% on a 3% yield. If you have $1,000 in your account and have access to 10 times leverage, you will control $10,000. If you implement the currency carry trade from the example above, you will earn 3% per year. At the end of the year, your $10,000 investment would equal $10,300, or a $300 gain. Because you only invested $1,000 of your own money, your real return would be 30% ($300/$1,000). However this strategy only works if the currency pair’s value remains unchanged or appreciates. Therefore, most forex carry traders look not only to earn the interest rate differential, but also capital appreciation. While we’ve greatly simplified this transaction, the key thing to remember here is that a small difference in interest rates can result in huge gains when leverage is applied. Most currency brokers require a minimum margin to earn interest for carry trades.

However, this transaction is complicated by changes to the exchange rate between the two countries. If the lower-yielding currency appreciates against the higher-yielding currency, the gain earned between the two yields could be eliminated. The major reason that this can happen is that the risks of the higher-yielding currency are too much for investors, so they choose to invest in the lower-yielding, safer currency. Because carry trades are longer term in nature, they are susceptible to a variety of changes over time, such as rising rates in the lower-yielding currency, which attracts more investors and can lead to currency appreciation, diminishing the returns of the carry trade. This makes the future direction of the currency pair just as important as the interest rate differential itself. (To read more about currency pairs, see Using Currency Correlations To Your Advantage, Making Sense Of The Euro/Swiss Franc Relationship and Forces Behind Exchange Rates.)



To clarify this further, imagine that the interest rate in the U.S. was 5%, while the same interest rate in Russia was 10%, providing a carry trade opportunity for traders to short the U.S. dollar and to long the Russian ruble. Assume the trader borrows $1,000 US at 5% for a year and converts it into Russian rubles at a rate of 25 USD/RUB (25,000 rubles), investing the proceeds for a year. Assuming no currency changes, the 25,000 rubles grows to 27,500 and, if converted back to U.S. dollars, will be worth $1,100 US. But because the trader borrowed $1,000 US at 5%, he or she owes $1,050 US, making the net proceeds of the trade only $50.

However, imagine that there was another crisis in Russia, such as the one that was seen in 1998 when the Russian government defaulted on its debt and there was large currency devaluation in Russia as market participants sold off their Russian currency positions. If, at the end of the year the exchange rate was 50 USD/RUB, your 27,500 rubles would now convert into only $550 US (27,500 RUB x 0.02 RUB/USD). Because the trader owes $1,050 US, he or she will have lost a significant percentage of the original investment on this carry trade because of the currency’s fluctuation - even though the interest rates in Russia were higher than the U.S.Another good example of forex fundamental analysis is based on commodity prices. (To read more about this, see Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)

You should now have an idea of some of the basic economic and fundamental ideas that underlie the forex and impact the movement of currencies. The most important thing that should be taken away from this section is that currencies and countries, like companies, are constantly changing in value based on fundamental factors such as economic growth and interest rates. You should also, based on the economic theories mentioned above, have an idea how certain economic factors impact a country's currency. We will now move on to technical analysis, the other school of analysis that can be used to pick trades in the forex market.

Sourced from : http://www.investopedia.com

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Forex Tutorial: Economic Theories, Models, Feeds & Data

There is a great deal of academic theory revolving around currencies. While often not applicable directly to day-to-day trading, it is helpful to understand the overarching ideas behind the academic research.


The main economic theories found in the foreign exchange deal with parity conditions. A parity condition is an economic explanation of the price at which two currencies should be exchanged, based on factors such as inflation and interest rates. The economic theories suggest that when the parity condition does not hold, an arbitrage opportunity exists for market participants. However, arbitrage opportunities, as in many other markets, are quickly discovered and eliminated before even giving the individual investor an opportunity to capitalize on them. Other theories are based on economic factors such as trade, capital flows and the way a country runs its operations. We review each of them briefly below.

Major Theories: Purchasing Power Parity Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is the economic theory that price levels between two countries should be equivalent to one another after exchange-rate adjustment. The basis of this theory is the law of one price, where the cost of an identical good should be the same around the world. Based on the theory, if there is a large difference in price between two countries for the same product after exchange rate adjustment, an arbitrage opportunity is created, because the product can be obtained from the country that sells it for the lowest price.

The relative version of PPP is as follows: 

Where 'e' represents the rate of change in the exchange rate and 'π₁' and 'π₂'represent the rates of inflation for country 1 and country 2, respectively.

For example, if the inflation rate for country XYZ is 10% and the inflation for country ABC is 5%, then ABC's currency should appreciate 4.76% against that of XYZ.


Interest Rate Parity The concept of Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is similar to PPP, in that it suggests that for there to be no arbitrage opportunities, two assets in two different countries should have similar interest rates, as long as the risk for each is the same. The basis for this parity is also the law of one price, in that the purchase of one investment asset in one country should yield the same return as the exact same asset in another country; otherwise exchange rates would have to adjust to make up for the difference.

The formula for determining IRP can be found by:

Where 'F' represents the forward exchange rate; 'S' represents the spot exchange rate; 'i₁' represents the interest rate in country 1; and 'i₂' represents the interest rate in country 2.

International Fisher Effect The International Fisher Effect (IFE) theory suggests that the exchange rate between two countries should change by an amount similar to the difference between their nominal interest rates. If the nominal rate in one country is lower than another, the currency of the country with the lower nominal rate should appreciate against the higher rate country by the same amount.

The formula for IFE is as follows:

Where 'e' represents the rate of change in the exchange rate and 'i₁' and 'i₂'represent the rates of inflation for country 1 and country 2, respectively.

Balance of Payments Theory A country's balance of payments is comprised of two segments - the current account and the capital account - which measure the inflows and outflows of goods and capital for a country. The balance of payments theory looks at the current account, which is the account dealing with trade of tangible goods, to get an idea of exchange-rate directions.

If a country is running a large current account surplus or deficit, it is a sign that a country's exchange rate is out of equilibrium. To bring the current account back into equilibrium, the exchange rate will need to adjust over time. If a country is running a large deficit (more imports than exports), the domestic currency will depreciate. On the other hand, a surplus would lead to currency appreciation.

The balance of payments identity is found by:
Where BCA represents the current account balance; BKA represents the capital account balance; and BRA represents the reserves account balance.

Real Interest Rate Differentiation Model The Real Interest Rate Differential Model simply suggests that countries with higher real interest rates will see their currencies appreciate against countries with lower interest rates. The reason for this is that investors around the world will move their money to countries with higher real rates to earn higher returns, which bids up the price of the higher real rate currency.

Asset Market Model The Asset Market Model looks at the inflow of money into a country by foreign investors for the purpose of purchasing assets such as stocks, bonds and other financial instruments. If a country is seeing large inflows by foreign investors, the price of its currency is expected to increase, as the domestic currency needs to be purchased by these foreign investors. This theory considers the capital account of the balance of trade compared to the current account in the prior theory. This model has gained more acceptance as the capital accounts of countries are starting to greatly outpace the current account as international money flow increases.

Monetary Model The Monetary Model focuses on a country's monetary policy to help determine the exchange rate. A country's monetary policy deals with the money supply of that country, which is determined by both the interest rate set by central banks and the amount of money printed by the treasury. Countries that adopt a monetary policy that rapidly grows its monetary supply will see inflationary pressure due to the increased amount of money in circulation. This leads to a devaluation of the currency.

These economic theories, which are based on assumptions and perfect situations, help to illustrate the basic fundamentals of currencies and how they are impacted by economic factors. However, the fact that there are so many conflicting theories indicates the difficulty in any one of them being 100% accurate in predicting currency fluctuations. Their importance will likely vary by the different market environment, but it is still important to know the fundamental basis behind each of the theories.

Economic Data Economic theories may move currencies in the long term, but on a shorter-term, day-to-day or week-to-week basis, economic data has a more significant impact. It is often said the biggest companies in the world are actually countries and that their currency is essentially shares in that country. Economic data, such as the latest gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, are often considered to be like a company's latest earnings data. In the same way that financial news and current events can affect a company's stock price, news and information about a country can have a major impact on the direction of that country's currency. Changes in interest rates, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, GDP, political stability etc. can all lead to extremely large gains/losses depending on the nature of the announcement and the current state of the country.

The number of economic announcements made each day from around the world can be intimidating, but as one spends more time learning about the forex market it becomes clear which announcements have the greatest influence. Listed below are a number of economic indicators that are generally considered to have the greatest influence - regardless of which country the announcement comes from.

Employment Data Most countries release data about the number of people that currently are employed within that economy. In the U.S., this data is known as non-farm payrolls and is released the first Friday of the month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In most cases, strong increases in employment signal that a country enjoys a prosperous economy, while decreases are a sign of potential contraction. If a country has gone recently through economic troubles, strong employment data could send the currency higher because it is a sign of economic health and recovery. On the other hand, high employment can also lead to inflation, so this data could send the currency downward. In other words, economic data and the movement of currency will often depend on the circumstances that exist when the data is released.

Interest Rates As was seen with some of the economic theories, interest rates are a major focus in the forex market. The most focus by market participants, in terms of interest rates, is placed on the country's central bank changes of its bank rate, which is used to adjust monetary supply and institute the country's monetary policy. In the U.S., the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) determines the bank rate, or the rate at which commercial banks can borrow and lend to the U.S. Treasury. The FOMC meets eight times a year to make decisions on whether to raise, lower or leave the bank rate the same; and each meeting, along with the minutes, is a point of focus. (For more on central banks readGet to Know the Major Central Banks.)

Inflation Inflation data measures the increases and decreases of price levels over a period of time. Due to the sheer amount of goods and services within an economy, a basket of goods and services is used to measure changes in prices. Price increases are a sign of inflation, which suggests that the country will see its currency depreciate. In the U.S., inflation data is shown in the Consumer Price Index, which is released on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Gross Domestic Product The gross domestic product of a country is a measure of all of the finished goods and services that a country generated during a given period. The GDP calculation is split into four categories: private consumption, government spending, business spending and total net exports. GDP is considered the best overall measure of the health of a country's economy, with GDP increases signaling economic growth. The healthier a country's economy is, the more attractive it is to foreign investors, which in turn can often lead to increases in the value of its currency, as money moves into the country. In the U.S., this data is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis once a month in the third or fourth quarter of the month.

Retail Sales Retail sales data measures the amount of sales that retailers make during the period, reflecting consumer spending. The measure itself doesn't look at all stores, but, similar to GDP, uses a group of stores of varying types to get an idea of consumer spending. This measure also gives market participants an idea of the strength of the economy, where increased spending signals a strong economy. In the U.S., the Department of Commerce releases data on retail sales around the middle of the month.



Durable Goods The data for durable goods (those with a lifespan of more than three years) measures the amount of manufactured goods that are ordered, shipped and unfilled for the time period. These goods include such things as cars and appliances, giving economists an idea of the amount of individual spending on these longer-term goods, along with an idea of the health of the factory sector. This measure again gives market participants insight into the health of the economy, with data being released around the 26th of the month by the Department of Commerce.

Trade and Capital Flows Interactions between countries create huge monetary flows that can have a substantial impact on the value of currencies. As was mentioned before, a country that imports far more than it exports could see its currency decline due to its need to sell its own currency to purchase the currency of the exporting nation. Furthermore, increased investments in a country can lead to substantial increases in the value of its currency.

Trade flow data looks at the difference between a country's imports and exports, with a trade deficit occurring when imports are greater than exports. In the U.S., the Commerce Department releases balance of trade data on a monthly basis, which shows the amount of goods and services that the U.S. exported and imported during the past month. Capital flow data looks at the difference in the amount of currency being brought in through investment and/or exports to currency being sold for foreign investments and/or imports. A country that is seeing a lot of foreign investment, where outsiders are purchasing domestic assets such as stocks or real estate, will generally have a capital flow surplus.

Balance of payments data is the combined total of a country's trade and capital flow over a period of time. The balance of payments is split into three categories: the current account, the capital account and the financial account. The current account looks at the flow of goods and services between countries. The capital account looks at the exchange of money between countries for the purpose of purchasing capital assets. The financial account looks at the monetary flow between countries for investment purposes.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Events The biggest changes in the forex often come from macroeconomic and geopolitical events such as wars, elections, monetary policy changes and financial crises. These events have the ability to change or reshape the country, including its fundamentals. For example, wars can put a huge economic strain on a country and greatly increase the volatility in a region, which could impact the value of its currency. It is important to keep up to date on these macroeconomic and geopolitical events.

There is so much data that is released in the forex market that it can be very difficult for the average individual to know which data to follow. Despite this, it is important to know what news releases will affect the currencies you trade. (For more insight, check out Trading On News Releases and Economic Indicators To Know.)

Now that you know a little more about what drives the market, we will look next at the two main trading strategies used by traders in the forex market – fundamental and technical analysis.

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Forex Tutorial: Forex History and Market Participants

Given the global nature of the forex exchange market, it is important to first examine and learn some of the important historical events relating to currencies and currency exchange before entering any trades. In this section we’ll review the international monetary system and how it has evolved to its current state. We will then take a look at the major players that occupy the forex market - something that is important for all potential forex traders to understand. 

The History of the Forex 

Gold Standard System The creation of the gold standard monetary system in 1875 marks one of the most important events in the history of the forex market. Before the gold standard was implemented, countries would commonly use gold and silver as means of international payment. The main issue with using gold and silver for payment is that their value is affected by external supply and demand. For example, the discovery of a new gold mine would drive gold prices down.

The underlying idea behind the gold standard was that governments guaranteed the conversion of currency into a specific amount of gold, and vice versa. In other words, a currency would be backed by gold. Obviously, governments needed a fairly substantial gold reserve in order to meet the demand for currency exchanges. During the late nineteenth century, all of the major economic countries had defined an amount of currency to an ounce of gold. Over time, the difference in price of an ounce of gold between two currencies became the exchange rate for those two currencies. This represented the first standardized means of currency exchange in history.

The gold standard eventually broke down during the beginning of World War I. Due to the political tension with Germany, the major European powers felt a need to complete large military projects. The financial burden of these projects was so substantial that there was not enough gold at the time to exchange for all the excess currency that the governments were printing off.

Although the gold standard would make a small comeback during the inter-war years, most countries had dropped it again by the onset of World War II. However, gold never ceased being the ultimate form of monetary value. (For more on this, read The Gold Standard Revisited, What Is Wrong With Gold? and Using Technical Analysis In The Gold Markets.)

Bretton Woods System Before the end of World War II, the Allied nations believed that there would be a need to set up a monetary system in order to fill the void that was left behind when the gold standard system was abandoned. In July 1944, more than 700 representatives from the Allies convened at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to deliberate over what would be called the Bretton Woods system of international monetary management.

To simplify, Bretton Woods led to the formation of the following: 

1. A method of fixed exchange rates;
2. The U.S. dollar replacing the gold standard to become a primary reserve currency; and
3. The creation of three international agencies to oversee economic activity: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

One of the main features of Bretton Woods is that the U.S. dollar replaced gold as the main standard of convertibility for the world’s currencies; and furthermore, the U.S. dollar became the only currency that would be backed by gold. (This turned out to be the primary reason that Bretton Woods eventually failed.)

Over the next 25 or so years, the U.S. had to run a series of balance of payment deficits in order to be the world’s reserved currency. By the early 1970s, U.S. gold reserves were so depleted that the U.S. treasury did not have enough gold to cover all the U.S. dollars that foreign central banks had in reserve.

Finally, on August 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon closed the gold window, and the U.S. announced to the world that it would no longer exchange gold for the U.S. dollars that were held in foreign reserves. This event marked the end of Bretton Woods.

Even though Bretton Woods didn’t last, it left an important legacy that still has a significant effect on today’s international economic climate. This legacy exists in the form of the three international agencies created in the 1940s: the IMF, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now part of the World Bank) and GATT, the precursor to the World Trade Organization. (To learn more about Bretton Wood, read What Is The International Monetary Fund? and Floating And Fixed Exchange Rates.)

Current Exchange RatesAfter the Bretton Woods system broke down, the world finally accepted the use of floating foreign exchange rates during the Jamaica agreement of 1976. This meant that the use of the gold standard would be permanently abolished. However, this is not to say that governments adopted a pure free-floating exchange rate system. Most governments employ one of the following three exchange rate systems that are still used today:

1. Dollarization;
2. Pegged rate; and
3. Managed floating rate.

Dollarization This event occurs when a country decides not to issue its own currency and adopts a foreign currency as its national currency. Although dollarization usually enables a country to be seen as a more stable place for investment, the drawback is that the country’s central bank can no longer print money or make any sort of monetary policy. An example of dollarization is El Salvador's use of the U.S. dollar. (To read more, see Dollarization Explained.)

Pegged Rates Pegging occurs when one country directly fixes its exchange rate to a foreign currency so that the country will have somewhat more stability than a normal float. More specifically, pegging allows a country’s currency to be exchanged at a fixed rate with a single or a specific basket of foreign currencies. The currency will only fluctuate when the pegged currencies change.

For example, China pegged its yuan to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 8.28 yuan to US$1, between 1997 and July 21, 2005. The downside to pegging would be that a currency’s value is at the mercy of the pegged currency’s economic situation. For example, if the U.S. dollar appreciates substantially against all other currencies, the yuan would also appreciate, which may not be what the Chinese central bank wants.

Managed Floating Rates This type of system is created when a currency’s exchange rate is allowed to freely change in value subject to the market forces of supply and demand. However, the government or central bank may intervene to stabilize extreme fluctuations in exchange rates. For example, if a country’s currency is depreciating far beyond an acceptable level, the government can raise short-term interest rates. Raising rates should cause the currency to appreciate slightly; but understand that this is a very simplified example. Central banks typically employ a number of tools to manage currency.

Market Participants Unlike the equity market - where investors often only trade with institutional investors (such as mutual funds) or other individual investors - there are additional participants that trade on the forex market for entirely different reasons than those on the equity market. Therefore, it is important to identify and understand the functions and motivations of the main players of the forex market.

Governments and Central Banks Arguably, some of the most influential participants involved with currency exchange are the central banks and federal governments. In most countries, the central bank is an extension of the government and conducts its policy in tandem with the government. However, some governments feel that a more independent central bank would be more effective in balancing the goals of curbing inflation and keeping interest rates low, which tends to increase economic growth. Regardless of the degree of independence that a central bank possesses, government representatives typically have regular consultations with central bank representatives to discuss monetary policy. Thus, central banks and governments are usually on the same page when it comes to monetary policy.

Central banks are often involved in manipulating reserve volumes in order to meet certain economic goals. For example, ever since pegging its currency (the yuan) to the U.S. dollar, China has been buying up millions of dollars worth of U.S. treasury bills in order to keep the yuan at its target exchange rate. Central banks use the foreign exchange market to adjust their reserve volumes. With extremely deep pockets, they yield significant influence on the currency markets.

Banks and Other Financial Institutions In addition to central banks and governments, some of the largest participants involved with forex transactions are banks. Most individuals who need foreign currency for small-scale transactions deal with neighborhood banks. However, individual transactions pale in comparison to the volumes that are traded in the interbank market.

The interbank market is the market through which large banks transact with each other and determine the currency price that individual traders see on their trading platforms. These banks transact with each other on electronic brokering systems that are based upon credit. Only banks that have credit relationships with each other can engage in transactions. The larger the bank, the more credit relationships it has and the better the pricing it can access for its customers. The smaller the bank, the less credit relationships it has and the lower the priority it has on the pricing scale.

Banks, in general, act as dealers in the sense that they are willing to buy/sell a currency at the bid/ask price. One way that banks make money on the forex market is by exchanging currency at a premium to the price they paid to obtain it. Since the forex market is a decentralized market, it is common to see different banks with slightly different exchange rates for the same currency.

Hedgers Some of the biggest clients of these banks are businesses that deal with international transactions. Whether a business is selling to an international client or buying from an international supplier, it will need to deal with the volatility of fluctuating currencies.

If there is one thing that management (and shareholders) detest, it is uncertainty. Having to deal with foreign-exchange risk is a big problem for many multinationals. For example, suppose that a German company orders some equipment from a Japanese manufacturer to be paid in yen one year from now. Since the exchange rate can fluctuate wildly over an entire year, the German company has no way of knowing whether it will end up paying more euros at the time of delivery.

One choice that a business can make to reduce the uncertainty of foreign-exchange risk is to go into the spot market and make an immediate transaction for the foreign currency that they need.

Unfortunately, businesses may not have enough cash on hand to make spot transactions or may not want to hold massive amounts of foreign currency for long periods of time. Therefore, businesses quite frequently employ hedging strategies in order to lock in a specific exchange rate for the future or to remove all sources of exchange-rate risk for that transaction.

For example, if a European company wants to import steel from the U.S., it would have to pay in U.S. dollars. If the price of the euro falls against the dollar before payment is made, the European company will realize a financial loss. As such, it could enter into a contract that locked in the current exchange rate to eliminate the risk of dealing in U.S. dollars. These contracts could be either forwards or futures contracts.



Speculators Another class of market participants involved with foreign exchange-related transactions is speculators. Rather than hedging against movement in exchange rates or exchanging currency to fund international transactions, speculators attempt to make money by taking advantage of fluctuating exchange-rate levels.

The most famous of all currency speculators is probably George Soros. The billionaire hedge fund manager is most famous for speculating on the decline of the British pound, a move that earned $1.1 billion in less than a month. On the other hand, Nick Leeson, a derivatives trader with England’s Barings Bank, took speculative positions on futures contracts in yen that resulted in losses amounting to more than $1.4 billion, which led to the collapse of the company.

Some of the largest and most controversial speculators on the forex market are hedge funds, which are essentially unregulated funds that employ unconventional investment strategies in order to reap large returns. Think of them as mutual funds on steroids. Hedge funds are the favorite whipping boys of many a central banker. Given that they can place such massive bets, they can have a major effect on a country’s currency and economy. Some critics blamed hedge funds for the Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s, but others have pointed out that the real problem was the ineptness of Asian central bankers. (For more on hedge funds, see Introduction To Hedge Funds - Part One andPart Two.)Either way, speculators can have a big sway on the currency markets, particularly big ones.

Now that you have a basic understanding of the forex market, its participants and its history, we can move on to some of the more advanced concepts that will bring you closer to being able to trade within this massive market. The next section will look at the main economic theories that underlie the forex market.

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Forex Tutorial: Foreign Exchange Risk and Benefits

In this section, we'll take a look at some of the benefits and risks associated with the forex market. We'll also discuss how it differs from the equity market in order to get a greater understanding of how the forex market works. 

The Good and the Bad We already have mentioned that factors such as the size, volatility and global structure of the foreign exchange market have all contributed to its rapid success. Given the highly liquid nature of this market, investors are able to place extremely large trades without affecting any given exchange rate. These large positions are made available to forex traders because of the low margin requirements used by the majority of the industry's brokers. For example, it is possible for a trader to control a position of US$100,000 by putting down as little as US$1,000 up front and borrowing the remainder from his or her forex broker. This amount of leverage acts as a double-edged sword because investors can realize large gains when rates make a small favorable change, but they also run the risk of a massive loss when the rates move against them. Despite the foreign exchange risks, the amount of leverage available in the forex market is what makes it attractive for many speculators.

The currency market is also the only market that is truly open 24 hours a day with decent liquidity throughout the day. For traders who may have a day job or just a busy schedule, it is an optimal market to trade in. As you can see from the chart below, the major trading hubs are spread throughout many different time zones, eliminating the need to wait for an opening or closing bell. As the U.S. trading closes, other markets in the East are opening, making it possible to trade at any time during the day.

Time Zone	Time (ET)
Tokyo Open	7:00 pm
Tokyo Close	4:00 am
London Open	3:00 am
London Close	12:00 pm
New York Open	8:00 am
New York Close	5:00 pm

While the forex market may offer more excitement to the investor, the risks are also higher in comparison to trading equities. The ultra-high leverage of the forex market means that huge gains can quickly turn to damaging losses and can wipe out the majority of your account in a matter of minutes. This is important for all new traders to understand, because in the forex market - due to the large amount of money involved and the number of players - traders will react quickly to information released into the market, leading to sharp moves in the price of the currency pair.

Though currencies don't tend to move as sharply as equities on a percentage basis (where a company's stock can lose a large portion of its value in a matter of minutes after a bad announcement), it is the leverage in the spot market that creates the volatility. For example, if you are using 100:1 leverage on $1,000 invested, you control $100,000 in capital. If you put $100,000 into a currency and the currency's price moves 1% against you, the value of the capital will have decreased to $99,000 - a loss of $1,000, or all of your invested capital, representing a 100% loss. In the equities market, most traders do not use leverage, therefore a 1% loss in the stock's value on a $1,000 investment, would only mean a loss of $10. Therefore, it is important to take into account the risks involved in the forex market before diving in.

Differences Between Forex and Equities A major difference between the forex and equities markets is the number of traded instruments: the forex market has very few compared to the thousands found in the equities market. The majority of forex traders focus their efforts on seven different currency pairs: the four majors, which include (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF); and the three commodity pairs (USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD). All other pairs are just different combinations of the same currencies, otherwise known as cross currencies. This makes currency trading easier to follow because rather than having to cherry-pick between 10,000 stocks to find the best value, all that FX traders need to do is “keep up” on the economic and political news of eight countries.

The equity markets often can hit a lull, resulting in shrinking volumes and activity. As a result, it may be hard to open and close positions when desired. Furthermore, in a declining market, it is only with extreme ingenuity that an equities investor can make a profit. It is difficult to short-sell in the U.S. equities market because of strict rules and regulations regarding the process. On the other hand, forex offers the opportunity to profit in both rising and declining markets because with each trade, you are buying and selling simultaneously, and short-selling is, therefore, inherent in every transaction. In addition, since the forex market is so liquid, traders are not required to wait for an uptickbefore they are allowed to enter into a short position - as they are in the equities market.

Due to the extreme liquidity of the forex market, margins are low and leverage is high. It just is not possible to find such low margin rates in the equities markets; most margin traders in the equities markets need at least 50% of the value of the investment available as margin, whereas forex traders need as little as 1%. Furthermore, commissions in the equities market are much higher than in the forex market. Traditional brokers ask for commission fees on top of the spread, plus the fees that have to be paid to the exchange. Spot forex brokers take only the spread as their fee for the transaction. (For a more in-depth introduction to currency trading, see Getting Started in Forex and A Primer On The Forex Market.)

By now you should have a basic understanding of what the forex market is and how it works. In the next section, we'll examine the evolution of the current foreign exchange system.


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Forex Tutorial: Reading a Forex Quote and Understanding the Jargon

One of the biggest sources of confusion for those new to the currency market is the standard for quoting currencies. In this section, we'll go over currency quotations and how they work in currency pair trades. 

Reading a Quote
When a currency is quoted, it is done in relation to another currency, so that the value of one is reflected through the value of another. Therefore, if you are trying to determine the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY), the forex quote would look like this:

USD/JPY = 119.50

This is referred to as a currency pair. The currency to the left of the slash is the base currency, while the currency on the right is called the quote or counter currency. The base currency (in this case, the U.S. dollar) is always equal to one unit (in this case, US$1), and the quoted currency (in this case, the Japanese yen) is what that one base unit is equivalent to in the other currency. The quote means that US$1 = 119.50 Japanese yen. In other words, US$1 can buy 119.50 Japanese yen. The forex quote includes the currency abbreviations for the currencies in question.


Direct Currency Quote vs. Indirect Currency Quote
There are two ways to quote a currency pair, either directly or indirectly. A direct currencyquote is simply a currency pair in which the domestic currency is the base currency; while an indirect quote, is a currency pair where the domestic currency is the quoted currency. So if you were looking at the Canadian dollar as the domestic currency and U.S. dollar as the foreign currency, a direct quote would be CAD/USD, while an indirect quote would be USD/CAD. The direct quote varies the foreign currency, and the quoted, or domestic currency, remains fixed at one unit. In the indirect quote, on the other hand, the domestic currency is variable and the foreign currency is fixed at one unit.

For example, if Canada is the domestic currency, a direct quote would be 0.85 CAD/USD, which means with C$1, you can purchase US$0.85. The indirect quote for this would be the inverse (1/0.85), which is 1.18 USD/CAD and means that USD$1 will purchase C$1.18.

In the forex spot market, most currencies are traded against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar is frequently the base currency in the currency pair. In these cases, it is called a direct quote. This would apply to the above USD/JPY currency pair, which indicates that US$1 is equal to 119.50 Japanese yen.

However, not all currencies have the U.S. dollar as the base. The Queen's currencies - those currencies that historically have had a tie with Britain, such as the British pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand dollar - are all quoted as the base currency against the U.S. dollar. The euro, which is relatively new, is quoted the same way as well. In these cases, the U.S. dollar is the counter currency, and the exchange rate is referred to as an indirect quote. This is why the EUR/USD quote is given as 1.25, for example, because it means that one euro is the equivalent of 1.25 U.S. dollars.

Most currency exchange rates are quoted out to four digits after the decimal place, with the exception of the Japanese yen (JPY), which is quoted out to two decimal places.

Cross Currency
When a currency quote is given without the U.S. dollar as one of its components, this is called a cross currency. The most common cross currency pairs are the EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY. These currency pairs expand the trading possibilities in the forex market, but it is important to note that they do not have as much of a following (for example, not as actively traded) as pairs that include the U.S. dollar, which also are called the majors. (For more on cross currency, see Make The Currency Cross Your Boss.)

Bid and Ask
As with most trading in the financial markets, when you are trading a currency pair there is a bid price (buy) and an ask price (sell). Again, these are in relation to the base currency. When buying a currency pair (going long), the ask price refers to the amount of quoted currency that has to be paid in order to buy one unit of the base currency, or how much the market will sell one unit of the base currency for in relation to the quoted currency.

The bid price is used when selling a currency pair (going short) and reflects how much of the quoted currency will be obtained when selling one unit of the base currency, or how much the market will pay for the quoted currency in relation to the base currency.

The quote before the slash is the bid price, and the two digits after the slash represent the ask price (only the last two digits of the full price are typically quoted). Note that the bid price is always smaller than the ask price. Let's look at an example:

USD/CAD = 1.2000/05 Bid = 1.2000 Ask= 1.2005

If you want to buy this currency pair, this means that you intend to buy the base currency and are therefore looking at the ask price to see how much (in Canadian dollars) the market will charge for U.S. dollars. According to the ask price, you can buy one U.S. dollar with 1.2005 Canadian dollars.

However, in order to sell this currency pair, or sell the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency, you would look at the bid price. It tells you that the market will buy US$1 base currency (you will be selling the market the base currency) for a price equivalent to 1.2000 Canadian dollars, which is the quoted currency.

Whichever currency is quoted first (the base currency) is always the one in which the transaction is being conducted. You either buy or sell the base currency. Depending on what currency you want to use to buy or sell the base with, you refer to the corresponding currency pair spot exchange rate to determine the price.

Spreads and Pips
The difference between the bid price and the ask price is called a spread. If we were to look at the following quote: EUR/USD = 1.2500/03, the spread would be 0.0003 or 3 pips, also known as points. Although these movements may seem insignificant, even the smallest point change can result in thousands of dollars being made or lost due toleverage. Again, this is one of the reasons that speculators are so attracted to the forex market; even the tiniest price movement can result in huge profit.

The pip is the smallest amount a price can move in any currency quote. In the case of the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound or Swiss franc, one pip would be 0.0001. With the Japanese yen, one pip would be 0.01, because this currency is quoted to two decimal places. So, in a forex quote of USD/CHF, the pip would be 0.0001 Swiss francs. Most currencies trade within a range of 100 to 150 pips a day.

Currency Quote Overview
USD/CAD = 1.2232/37
Base Currency	Currency to the left (USD)
Quote/Counter Currency	Currency to the right (CAD)
Bid Price	1.2232	Price for which the market maker will buy the base currency. Bid is always smaller than ask.
Ask Price	1.2237	Price for which the market maker will sell the base currency.
Pip	One point move, in USD/CAD it is .0001 and 1 point change would be from 1.2231 to 1.2232	The pip/point is the smallest movement a price can make.
Spread	Spread in this case is 5 pips/points; difference between bid and ask price (1.2237-1.2232).

Currency Pairs in the Forwards and Futures Markets
One of the key technical differences between the forex markets is the way currencies are quoted. In the forwards or futures markets, foreign exchange always is quoted against the U.S. dollar. This means that pricing is done in terms of how many U.S. dollars are needed to buy one unit of the other currency. Remember that in the spot market some currencies are quoted against the U.S. dollar, while for others, the U.S. dollar is being quoted against them. As such, the forwards/futures market and the spot market quotes will not always be parallel one another.

For example, in the spot market, the British pound is quoted against the U.S. dollar as GBP/USD. This is the same way it would be quoted in the forwards and futures markets. Thus, when the British pound strengthens against the U.S. dollar in the spot market, it will also rise in the forwards and futures markets.

On the other hand, when looking at the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, the former is quoted against the latter. In the spot market, the quote would be 115 for example, which means that one U.S. dollar would buy 115 Japanese yen. In the futures market, it would be quoted as (1/115) or .0087, which means that 1 Japanese yen would buy .0087 U.S. dollars. As such, a rise in the USD/JPY spot rate would equate to a decline in the JPY futures rate because the U.S. dollar would have strengthened against the Japanese yen and therefore one Japanese yen would buy less U.S. dollars.

Now that you know a little bit about how currencies are quoted, let's move on to the benefits and risks involved with trading forex.

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