Forex Risk Management

This aspect is one of the most important aspects you will ever read about trading.

Why is it important? In reality, we are in the business of making money, and to be able to do so we need to learn how to manage it well in order to prevent continuous loss. Ironically, this is one of the most overlooked areas in trading. Many traders are just anxious to get right into trading with no regards to their total account size. They simply determine how much they can lose in a single trade and get into the trade.

Trading on Forex, the investor has opportunities to multiply his money, but he also risks losing future profit and much more, the invested capital. Deviation from expected profit average is what determines the investor's risk on the financial market. Risk management methods are applied before and after opening positions. The main risk management method is applied to reduce losses.

Using Protective Stop-Loss to Control Risk

It is advisable to place a protective stop-loss for every open position. Stop-loss is a point when the trader leaves the market in order to avoid an unfavourable situation. When opening a position it is recommended to use stop-loss to insure against extra losses.

While in active trade it is good to protect your fund against potential total loss. That is the central purpose of money and risk management. Too often, the beginning trader will be overly concerned about incurring losing trades. Trader therefore lets losses mount, with the hope that the market will turn around and the loss will turn into a gain.

Almost all successful trading strategies include a disciplined procedure for cutting losses. When a trader is down on a position, many emotions often come into play, making it difficult to cut losses at the right level. The best practice is to decide where losses will be cut before a trade is even initiated. This will assure the trader of the maximum amount he or she can expect to lose on the trade.

Risk a Tolerable Account Portion Per Trade Position

To manage your invested fund well, you have to decide before the opening of any position how much of the money you can afford to lose in case the trade goes negative from your projection. For instance, you may decide that for every opened position your risked money will be 3%, 5% or 10% of the total fund, by so doing you have known prior to the execution of the trade the highest amount that can ever go out of your money on that single trading position, by so doing you have even taken away emotion.

The factor needed to work out this are:

1. The fund balance in your account.
2. The number of pip set as stop loss.
3. The lot size (volume) traded.

For example:

Let's say your fund balance is $5000 and your predetermined stop loss pip is 50 pips (selecting the number of your stop-loss pips should be from your analytical research) and you are ready to risk only 2% of your fund for a position. 

What do you do? 

Work out the 2% of $5000 

Which is = $100. 

Implying that you can afford to lose $100 in case of any eventuality. 

Then, Divide $100 by 50 pips 

It will be $2 

Your lot size must be 1 pip to $2. That will be 0.2 lot size. 

So you must use 0.2 lot size.

As much as possible try not to be greedy, to be less greedy is to be able to minimize risk.

In a way leverage can help to control risk: if your leverage is relatively low it will limit you against opening a trade with high lot size.

Re-Evaluate Your Strategies

The other key element of risk control is overall account risk. If trade is going against you, at what point will you stop and re-evaluate your trading strategy? Is it when you lost 30% of your money or 50% or 80% or when you lost the entire money? Assess your market analytical methods and see if there would be need for further perfection or even a change.

Also, check out if your set lot size is too large for your entire account size.

Risk management and fund management go hand in hand, if you manage your FUNDD well you are equally reducing your risk, also if you control your risk well you are equally protecting your fund.

by Duro Olorunniji

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Forex Money Management: Leverage and Margin Basics

Two very important concepts of forex money management are leverage and margin. Leverage allows forex traders to invest much more into currency trading than is available in their trading accounts. Thus, forex traders can operate larger funds. Margin is the real funds that are required to be held in the trading account as a collateral to cover any possible losses.

Forex Money Management: Leverage

Profits and losses in the forex market tend to be higher than what you would experience in the stock market even though the actual price of currencies may not fluctuate wildly. Most brokers allow a 100:1 leverage. This means you can buy or sell €100,000 worth of currencies, even though you have only €1,000 in your trading account. Some brokers offer leverage as high as 400:1.

Leverage can also work against you in forex trading. For example, if a currency moves against your expectations, the leverage would multiply your loss by the same factor as it would multiply the gain. Many people starting forex trading do not completely understand the concepts of leverage and margin. Leverage appears to be an amazing service provided by brokers. However, one must remember that even a 1% fluctuation of currency prices could wipe out your entire capital, depending on the amount of leverage offered by the forex broker. Using a smaller leverage could help you prevent losing too much too fast. So, you need to find the perfect balance.

Forex Money Management: Margin

In the example stated above, when you buy €100,000 worth of currencies, you are in fact borrowing €99,000 for your purchases. The €1,000 that is used to cover your losses is the margin.

Leverage	Margin Required	Amount Traded	Required Margin
20:1	5%	€100,000	€5,000
50:1	2%	€100,000	€2,000
100:1	1%	€100,000	€1,000
200:1	0.5%	€100,000	€500

A trader may choose the highest leverage (200:1), with the margin being only 0.5%. However, sound money management principles say that the trader should never trade huge lots. This would prevent leverage from hurting the trader.

Therefore, it is essential to understand how much leverage your forex broker offers and what the margin requirements are. If you are new to trading, you should compare the leverage and margin specifications of different brokers.

by Kitz S

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Why You Should Treat Forex Trading as a Business

If you trade the forex market you will undoubtedly be aware that it is a high risk venture. Most traders who trade currencies end up losing money. Unfortunately, some traders end up losing a substantial part of their net worth.

Many traders, especially new traders are attracted to forex because they see brokers offering �200 to 1 leverage� and in some cases even higher amounts. It is a common belief amongst new traders that they can use this leverage to generate a substantial amount of wealth. This belief nearly always ends in tears.

To be a successful forex trader, it is imperative that you treat trading like a business. It is unlikely that you could put $50 in to a business and turn it into $20,000 in a short frame of time. Granted, there are exceptions, but they are EXTREMELY few and far between.

You need to apply this same theory to forex trading. One of the biggest reasons traders lose money is having an account size that is too small.

One of the major advantages is forex is that you can effectively borrow as much money as you like from your broker. However, it is important to remember that borrowing money to trade will increase your profits, but it will also increase your losses.

There are no universal rules to state how much you should borrow. Many new traders should start off borrowing very little, if anything. Of course, it does depend on the type of strategy that you use.

If you have a $10,000 trading account, most brokers would allow you to open positions to the value of at least $500,000. If you bought a USD pair, this would be 50:1 leverage. The position size is 50 times the size of your account.

It would not take much of a price movement in the wrong direction to cause a significant loss to your account.

Many new traders start with a small account balance. The same principle can be applied to a $100 account trading a $5,000 position.

The smallest position allowed by many brokers is often $10,000, yet they may still allow you to open an account with $100.

The brokers don't mind, they know that 99% of the clients who do this will blow their account.

The point I am trying to get across is the one of being realistic. Treat trading as if it is a business. Aim for realistic returns. Think about the stock market or mutual funds. They often earn less than 10% per year on average. If you can make 30% per year trading forex, that is significantly higher!

Don't expect to make $1,000 a month from your $100 account. It almost certainly will NOT happen.

by Eric Martin

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The Power of Small Consistent Returns

For most of us, 'safe investments' are limited to the rate of return that we can earn on our savings accounts or long-term deposits. The return would depend on the interest rate applicable in each country. At the time of writing, November 2007, the interest rate earned on a savings account in Australia is around 7% a year. That is a return of 0.57% a month. Despite this fact, many have preconceptions regarding the type of returns they can make from trading the financial markets.

A novice trader puts on a winning trade and gains between ten to fifty percent of his trading account. He forms a belief that, by trading, he can quickly become a millionaire. Indeed, if we assume a 20% return per month on a $10,000 trading account, we can expect $89,161 by the end of our first twelve months of trading. What if we assume an estimate of 50% return per month? We would have $1,297,463 by the end of the year. Of course, the problem with expectations like these is that they are unrealistic. Even most of those who claim to have made these types of returns have only done so in simulated environments, in trading competitions using game accounts, for example, where real money was not at risk.

It is possible to make these types of returns for a short while but I have not heard of anybody achieving such steep returns consistently year after year. After testing hundreds of trading systems and ideas I have come to believe that systems, which seem to promise exorbitant returns, turn out to be over-optimized for the period they have been tested on. Or even worse, they have flaws in their logic or assumptions.

Lately, I have been looking at the performance reports of trading firms in the USA. What would you say if I told you that the top trading firm over the last ten years only made an average return of 25% a year and the median trading firm made somewhere around 15% a year? Well, this is in fact what I am telling you.

A 20% and a 15% return a year is 'only' 1.877% and 1.171% return a month, respectively. I am sure that many novice traders and investors reading this article will have a mix of reactions towards these figures. Some might laugh and scoff at such 'paltry' returns, secretly believing that they can do a lot better than just 1.877% a month. Others may be surprised or even disappointed because their dreams of living rich will not come as quickly as they hoped.

Setting aside your initial reaction to these figures however, let us refocus on what these numbers actually mean in the real world. I would like to show you that these types of returns are very powerful. With time, these seemingly small, but consistent, gains will give you enormous profits in the future.

15% A YEAR RETURN ON A $10,000 ACCOUNT

Let us start with the assumption of having a $10,000 account, making at least 1.171% return a month, or 15% a year, trading the market. Based on these, the projections are:

1. $11,500 (15% growth) after 1 year.
2. $13,223 (32% growth) after 2 years.
3. $20,108 (101% growth) after 5 years.
4. $40,432 (304% growth) after 10 years.
5. $163,475 (1535% growth) after 20 years.
6. $660,960 (6510% growth) after 30 years.

25% A YEAR RETURN ON A $10,000 ACCOUNT

Let us now assume having a $10,000 account, making at least 1.877% a month, or 25% a year, trading the market Based on these, the projections are:

1. $12,500 (25% growth) after 1 year.
2. $15,625 (56% growth) after 2 years.
3. $30,519 (205% growth) after 5 years.
4. $93,140 (831% growth) after 10 years.
5. $867,512 (8575% growth) after 20 years.
6. $8,080,034 (80700% growth) after 30 years.

It is very important to note that not all fund managers make money. Returns of 15% or 25% a year belong only to those money managers who were consistently profitable. Furthermore, these types of returns are out-of-bounds for most investors. To invest in such schemes, most of the fund managers I have been looking into will deal with you only if you are a 'sophisticated' investor with a spare $500,000 minimum to invest. In fact, the highest earner only took on investors with a minimum of $25,000,000 US dollars to invest. (I will not mention any names here, however, you can do your own research by typing "commodity trading advisors" in your favourite search engine.)

I do not know about you but I certainly do not have 25 million dollars lying around, to hand over for someone else to manage. The dilemma, however, is that life is way too short for me to be satisfied with a 7% annual return either. I guess this is why you and I have taken the decision to trade and invest in the financial markets ourselves. At least there, we have full control and responsibility over the returns we get. It has its risks, but we can all avoid being reckless if we keep realistic expectations.

(This article was first published in The Part-Time Investor Magazine, Issue 3.)

by Marquez Comelab

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The Costs Of Trading

You may have relatives or friends who trade the markets. They could be trading shares, futures, options or forex. You may have heard of their exciting trading stories and perhaps this aroused your curiosity and you wondered whether you should trade too. One of the first questions you ask before you trade would be: what are the costs of trading.

The costs of trading depend on several factors, including the instrument and market you are trading. Most of the costs you pay are to your brokerage firm. They need to make a living in exchange for the services they provide.

Generally, you would expect to incur the following costs:

• Commissions
• Slippage
• Spread
• Platform Fees
• Expenses

Commissions

These costs are charged by brokers. The commission you pay is usually calculated as a percentage of the size of your trade. For example, if you are buying or selling $10,000 worth of shares, your broker may charge you 1% of that. They may also charge in tiers: for example, if you are buying or selling shares with a total market value of less than $10,000 then your broker may charge you $30. If it is under $20,000, they may charge you $50. Therefore, if you bought $5,000 worth of shares, you would still pay $30 commission. And if you bought $12,000 worth of shares you would still pay $50 commission.

Slippage

The price of a commodity is always moving as long as the market is open. Therefore, if the price of a share is quoted at $10 now, it does not mean that when you decide to buy, you will buy those shares at $10 each. When you put in your order and it gets filled, the market price may have already changed. If your order to buy the shares was filled at a price of $10.25, and you bought 100 shares, then your total slippage cost is: $25 (that is 100 shares * $0.25). If you had the same slippage when you sell, then the entire slippage costs for you getting in and out of the market would be $50 (that is $25 * 2 trades).

Spread

The spread is the difference between the bid to buy and offer to sell for the commodity. If the most eager buyer is willing to buy US Dollars for 0.7500 Australian Dollars each, but the most eager seller is only willing to sell them for 0.7510 Australian Dollars each, then there is a spread of 10 pips. These 10 pips are referred to as the spread. If you bought 100,000 USDs, the spread would cost you 100 Australian Dollars. (Pips are discussed further in the book: The Part-Time Currency Trader .)

Platform Fees

Some brokers charge you monthly for using their trading platforms.

Expenses

These costs include those associated to your trading education like buying books, trading software, data subscription and so forth.

Some people may 'brush' these costs aside as negligible costs of having fun, much like the coins they put in poker machines. However, if you want to look at trading as a business, you have to minimize them and make sure you are getting the most for every dollar you spend to ensure your long-term survival.

by Marquez Comelab

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Protective Puts

Option overlays in the forex are a great way to control risk while taking advantage of the upside in trading. Options are a broad subject so I only intend on discussing one concept in this article and then will follow up with another article on a second overlay strategy. One of our trading systems at proftingWithForex.com uses option overlays, and you can follow along month by month to see how this strategy actually performs in real time. The two concepts I will talk about are very common and can be executed easily and without constant maintenance. Those are two things I like to look for in a system so I am not the one making all the mistakes for the first time and so I can have a life along with my forex trading. I will cover protective puts in this report and covered calls next.

PROTECTIVE PUTS

A put is an option with three components. The first is a contract. When you buy a put, you are buying the right to sell someone the underlying currency at a predetermined price for a predetermined period of time. You could buy a put today to sell a lot of the GBP/USD at $2.0000 any time between now and a date you choose in the future. If the currency pair falls to 1.9900, you can still sell it for 2.0000 and realize a profit. In fact, it doesn't matter how far the currency falls. If it is still within your time window, you can sell the currency for 2.0000 at will. The set price (2.0000) that you have selected for your contract is known as the strike price. The second component is time. Options are available in monthly increments. That means you can buy one that is good until next month or 12 months from now. The choice is up to you. Finally, options cost money. The price of an option is called the premium. The premium is higher the more valuable the options is. An option with a long time frame and a great strike price is more expensive than one with a very short time frame and a more speculative strike price. I think the best way to explain this is to use an example.

Example 1:

Let's assume that on January 22, 2007, you wanted to buy one contract of the GBP/USD. Let's assume it had a price of 1.9750. You are a prudent investor, and you want some protection from risk in the market so you buy a protective put that allows you to sell this contract at 1.9750 anytime before that contract expires. In this case, the contract would have expired a month later on the third Friday of February, the 16 th . That put will cost you the equivalent of 150 pips per contract. The pair subsequently dropped to 1.9502. In that case, the put will still be worth 248 pips because you can still sell the lot for 1.9750 (1.9750 — 1.9502 = 0.0248). That is exactly equal to the amount you would have lost on the contract you were long so they wash each other out. In fact, the only thing you are out is the 150 pips you paid to purchase the contract in the first place. You didn't have to set a stop because you were totally protected. Even though the contract value dropped significantly-more than the 150 pips you had planned for-you had a hedge that protected your capital.

Example 2:

The following month's trade, February to March, would have been another loss, but the March to April trade was a winner. For the March to April trade, you could have purchased the long position in the currency pair for 1.9372. You could have covered your position with a put at 1.9350 that would have cost you 120 pips, leaving you with some exposure between 1.9350 and 1.9372. However if you add those two positions, you had a level of total risk similar to what you had during the January to February trade. During the month, your long position rose significantly to 2.0027. That means you made 655 pips. What about your put? Well, there is no way you will want to sell this position for 1.9350 so you will just let the put expire worthless. That will reduce your gains by the amount you paid for the put so your new total is a net gain of 535 pips.

This strategy can appear to be slightly complicated at first, but it is worth learning more about it as it offers significant benefits. Institutional traders use option overlays, such as protective puts, all the time. It helps control risk and reduces total volatility in a portfolio. Here are a few more of the benefits, along with two of the cons, of this strategy.

Benefit #1-No stops

You do not need to set a stop on your long currency position. How many times have you been right in your direction but got stopped out on a whipsaw in the market? I am positive that this happens to most forex traders on a regular basis. With a protective put, you are in charge and can let the exchange rate drop to zero, if that were possible, without exceeding your maximum loss. By the way, this benefit is also true during announcements. You are now in control.

Benefit #2-Unlimited upside

Unlike many hedging strategies, this technique still allows for unlimited upside. Although gains are offset by the price of the put, gains can still be significant.

Benefit #3-Lower portfolio volatility

The total portfolio has lower volatility because your downside is capped. Here is an additional example. I will assume that pricing and volatility has been reasonably constant, on average, during the last 10 years and that your strategy is to buy a long position on the GBP/USD and an at the money put with total portfolio leverage of 20:1. That would have returned 10 percent per year during that period. When you combine this advantage with some prudent analysis, it is entirely possible to see much better returns than this.

Con #1 — Cost of the put

The put will cost you 150 pips if you let it run until expiration each month-whether the market goes up or down. That price eats into your upside and creates a predetermined downside. Even if the market dropped less than 150 pips, the maximum loss will be the same.

Con #2 — Cost of trading

If you purchase a put, you will pay a commission. With commission prices falling all the time, this is usually nominal but it adds another pip worth of losses to each month's trading.

The most difficult thing for most investors to do is to protect their capital. You will hear successful individual investors often say that if you can effectively protect your capital, profits will take care of themselves. I agree with that sentiment and use protective puts to help give me an edge. At ProfitingWithForex.com we maintain a model portfolio in the trades section that uses option overlays to illustrate the concept in real time. Log in, and check it out to see what we are up to and what this looks like over time.

by Jogn Jagerson, author of Profiting With Forex, a McGraw-Hill publication.

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FOREX — Dealing With Your Losses

One of the most important rules of Forex trading is to keep your losses as small as you possibly can. With small Forex trading losses, you can stick it out longer than those times when the market moves against you, and be well positioned for when the trend turns around. The one proven method to keeping your losses small is to set your maximum loss before you even open a Forex trading position.

The maximum loss is the greatest amount of capital that you are comfortable losing on any one trade. With your maximum loss set as a small percentage of your Forex trading effort, a string of losses won't stop you from trading for any particular amount of time. Unlike the 95% of Forex traders out there who lose money because they haven't begun to use wise money management rules to their Forex trading system, you will be ok with this money management rule.

To use as an example, If I had a Forex trading float of $1000, and I began trading with $100 a trade, it would be reasonable for me to experience three losses in a row. This would reduce my Forex trading capital to $400. It would then be decided that they're going to bet $200 on the next trade because they think they have a higher chance of winning after having lost three times already.

If that trader did bet $100 dollars on the next trade because they thought they were going to win, their capital could be reduced to $250 dollars. The chances of making money now are practically nil because I would need to make 150% on the next trade just to break even. If the maximum loss had been determined, and stuck to, they would not be in this position.

In this case, the reason for failure was because the trader risked too much money, and didn't apply good money management to the play. Remember, the goal here is to keep our losses as small as possible while also making sure that we open a large enough position to capitalize on profits and minimize losses. With your money management rules in place, in your Forex trading system, you will always be able to do this.

by Don Spanish

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Money Management Tips For Trading On The Forex

What is Money Management: describes strategies or methods a player uses to avoid losing their bankroll.

Money management in the foreign exchange currency market requires educating yourself in a variety of financial areas. First, a definition of the foreign exchange currency or forex market is called for. The forex market is simply the exchange of the currency of one country for the currency of another. The relative values of various currencies in the world change on a regular basis. Factors such as the stability of the economy of a country, the gross national product, the gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and such obvious factors as domestic security and foreign relations come into play. For instance, if a country has an unstable government, is expecting a military takeover, or is about to become involved in a war, then the country's currency may go down in relative value compared to the currency of other countries.

The Forex, or foreign currency exchange, is all about money. Money from all over the world is bought, sold and traded. On the Forex, anyone can buy and sell currency and with possibly come out ahead in the end. When dealing with the foreign currency exchange, it is possible to buy the currency of one country, sell it and make a profit. For example, a broker might buy a Japanese yen when the yen to dollar ratio increases, then sell the yens and buy back American dollars for a profit.

There are five major forex exchange markets in the world, New York, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo and Zurich. Forex trading occurs around the clock in various markets, Asian, European, and American. With different time zones, when Asian trading stops, European trading opens, and conversely when European trading stops, American trading opens, and when American trading stops, then it is time for Asian trading to begin again.

Most of the trading in the world occurs in the forex markets; smaller markets for trade in individual countries. Simply put forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Over $1.4 trillion dollars, US of forex trading occurs daily and sometimes fortunes are made or lost in this market. The billionaire George Soros has made most of his money in forex trading. Successfully managing your money in forex trading requires an understanding of the bid/ask spread.

Simply put the bid ask spread is the difference between the price at which something is offered for sale and the price that it is actually purchased for. For instance, if the ask price is 100 dollars, and the bid is 102 dollars then the difference is two dollars, the spread. Many forex traders trade on margin. Trading on margin is buying and selling assets that are worth more than the money in your account. Since currency exchange rates on any given day are usually less than two percent, forex trading is done with a small margin. To use an example, with a one percent margin a trader can trade up to $250,000 even if he only has $5,000 in his account. This means the trade has leverage of 50 to one. This amount of leverage allows a trader to make good profits very quickly. Of course, with the chance of high profits also comes high risk.

Like many other speculative investments, a key part of money management for the forex trader is only using money that can be put at risk. It is wise to set aside a portion of your net worth and make that the only money you use in forex trading. While the chances of good profits are there, if you should have a problem and get wiped out, you'll only have a limited amount of money placed at risk. Also remember that the market is n constant motion. There are always trading opportunities. If a currency is becoming stronger or weaker in relation to other currencies there is always a chance for profit. For instance, if you believe that the Euro is gong to become weak compared to the US dollar then selling Euros is a good bet. If you believe that the dollar is going to become weaker than the yen, or the pound sterling, then selling dollars is wise. Staying current on the news and current events in the countries whose currency you hold is a smart move. Many people reach points where they can predict currency changes based on political or economic news in a given country. Remember though that forex trading is speculation, so be careful when managing your funds and only invest what you can afford to risk.

Please always make sure you check with the pros when dealing in this market unless you are doing this as a hobby and don't have a lot at stake in it. There are a lot of big boys playing here and they won't lose much sleep if you and thousands others lose their shirts...

by David Mclauchlan

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